Colts @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff78°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

3-0 · Power #13

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

2-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -3.5

✓ LAR W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 23–26 LAR

✓ LAR (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3.5

CloseLAR -3.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -3.5

no move

CloseLAR -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -3.5 · unchangedmodel LAR -0.5

model LAR -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 55% (156 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3.5

CloseLAR -3.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 3.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 27–20; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 3.6; 52.5 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Very close	BAL vs BUF 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	35–10	W	U47.5
Close	GB vs WSH 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	27–18	W	U47.5
Close	GB vs MIN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	29–31	L	O44.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs JAX 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–27	W	O50.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	KC vs NO 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	26–13	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0
LAR WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
LAR UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 50% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
LAR	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IND 2–6 LAR LAR leads · 8 games since 2001 · LAR has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Los Angeles Rams 29 @ Indianapolis Colts 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.8 →+2.3▲ 3.1#6

LAR+0.2 →+1.8▲ 1.6#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

IND

Longer bar = better

LAR

Offense

◀ IND better

#13

Defense

LAR better ▶

+1.7 #1

Turnovers

◀ IND better

+0.3 #14

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ IND faster

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #3	20.3 #14	IND
Yards / play	6.61 #1	4.38 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.26 #1	−0.08 #7	IND
Success rate	52% #1	39% #7	IND

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #11	18.7 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.99 #5	4.95 #14	LAR
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	−0.08 #8	Even
Success rate	47% #5	45% #19	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	8.7 #5	11.3 #1	20.0 #1	6.7 #4	7.7 #10	14.3 #5
LAR allowed	3.3 #7	6.3 #17	9.7 #11	5.7 #25	5.0 #8	10.7 #16

LAR scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	5.7 #10	6.3 #20	12.0 #16	8.0 #2	4.3 #29	12.3 #9
IND allowed	3.3 #7	5.7 #14	9.0 #8	4.7 #17	5.0 #8	9.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.