Jaguars @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sun, Sep 14, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff83°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

1-0 · Power #7

final

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

1-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

✓ CIN W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 22–26 CIN

✓ CIN (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -3.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -3.5

no move

CloseCIN -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -3.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -6

model CIN -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (143 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -3.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 31–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 3.7; 46.7 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Loose	BAL vs BUF 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	35–10	W	U47.5
Loose	KC vs NO 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	26–13	W	U43.5
Loose	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Loose	MIA vs JAX 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–17	L	U49.5
Loose	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & rest	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Loose	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Loose	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & spread	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Loose	PHI vs MIN 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	24–7	W	U49.5
Loose	GB vs MIN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	29–31	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX W	1-0	100%	—	—
CIN L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX U	0-1	0%	1-0
CIN U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 59 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
CIN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JAX 10–9 CIN JAX leads · 19 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 4 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 34 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 31	JAX -10	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX−2.1 →−1.1▲ 1.0#23

CIN+0.5 →0.0▼ 0.5#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

JAX

Longer bar = better

CIN

Offense

◀ JAX better

#25

Defense

◀ JAX better

#10

+2.0 #3

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #2

63 plays #11

Pace

◀ JAX faster

49 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #9	16.0 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #7	4.61 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.15 #10	−0.05 #12	Even
Success rate	48% #8	39% #7	Even

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	CIN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #20	10.0 #3	JAX
Yards / play	2.88 #31	4.18 #4	JAX
EPA / play	−0.11 #24	−0.26 #4	JAX
Success rate	41% #24	35% #2	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.