Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game
Closing spread
CIN -5.5
✓ CLE W
Total
47.5
▼ Under · 33 pts
Model before kickoff
CIN 26–21 CLE
✓ CIN (68%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCIN -5.5
CloseCIN -5.5
Total46.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCIN -5.5
no move
CloseCIN -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open46.5
▲ 1
Close47.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CIN -5.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -3
model CIN -3
Opened 46.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 1 upmodel 46.5
model 46.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 53% (43 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCIN -5.5
CloseCIN -5.5
Total46.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CIN as a 5.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: CIN won 17–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 69%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 4.6; 49.3 points a game (usually 45.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-5.5 | 20–15 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-5.5 | 34–24 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-4.5 | 17–20 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread |
-4.5 | 26–23 | L | U49.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-4.5 | 41–31 | W | O50.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total |
-3.5 | 36–24 | W | O48.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-4.5 | 24–26 | L | O47.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 15–9 | W | U43.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings & total |
-3.5 | 22–17 | W | U46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread |
-4.5 | 33–36 | L | O47.5 |
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WSHHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Cincinnati Bengals have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
 CLE | 2-8 20% | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 4 since 2023
CIN 32–22 CLE
CIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22 2024 | Cleveland Browns 6 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24 | CIN -10.5 | CIN W |
| Oct 20 2024 | Cincinnati Bengals 21 @ Cleveland Browns 14 | CIN -5.5 | CIN W |
| Jan 7 2023 | Cleveland Browns 14 @ Cincinnati Bengals 31 | CIN -7 | CIN W |
| Sep 10 2023 | Cincinnati Bengals 3 @ Cleveland Browns 24 | — | — |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CLE +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
61° · 8 mph
gusts 13 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CIN1st game
CLE1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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