Thu, Sep 4, 2025, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Philadelphia Eagles · Division game
Closing spread
PHI -7.5
✓ DAL W
Total
47.5
▼ Under · 44 pts
Model before kickoff
DAL 20–27 PHI
✓ PHI (76%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPHI -4.5
ClosePHI -7.5
Total43.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPHI -4.5
3 → PHI
ClosePHI -7.5
3 pts toward Philadelphia Eagles
Total
Open43.5
▲ 4
Close47.5
Up 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PHI -4.5 · closed PHI -7.5 · moved 3 toward PHImodel PHI -8.5
model PHI -8.5
Opened 43.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 4 upmodel 46.5
model 46.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 47% (72 games)ⓘ
Crossed 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPHI -4.5
ClosePHI -7.5
Total43.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
PHI as a 7.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: PHI won 24–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 47.5, as in 8 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 71%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 43%
Went over
2 of 1020%
Below normal · usually 57%
Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 7.2; 44.3 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total |
-6.5 | 28–13 | W | U47.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation |
-6.5 | 19–44 | L | O47.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation |
-7.5 | 16–20 | L | U51.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-6.5 | 30–27 | L | O49.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-7.5 | 26–9 | W | U47.5 |
| Loose | PHI vs  NYG2022 · Postseason · loose · similar team ratings |
-8 | 38–7 | W | U48 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings |
-7.5 | 25–17 | W | U46 |
| Loose |  GB vs  NYJ2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-8 | 10–27 | L | U44.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 27–14 | W | U42.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings |
-7.5 | 22–24 | L | U47 |
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DENHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Philadelphia Eagles ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Philadelphia Eagles
3 pts (PHI -4.5 → PHI -7.5), through the key number 7. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved up 4
43.5 → 47.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
Dallas Cowboys have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| PHI | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 4 since 2023
DAL 26–29 PHI
PHI leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29 2024 | Dallas Cowboys 7 @ Philadelphia Eagles 41 | PHI -7.5 | PHI W |
| Nov 10 2024 | Philadelphia Eagles 34 @ Dallas Cowboys 6 | PHI -7.5 | PHI W |
| Dec 10 2023 | Philadelphia Eagles 13 @ Dallas Cowboys 33 | DAL -3.5 | DAL W |
| Nov 5 2023 | Dallas Cowboys 23 @ Philadelphia Eagles 28 | PHI -3.5 | PHI W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
PHI +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
74° · 6 mph
gusts 20 mph · 0.012 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
DAL1st game
PHI1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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