Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Denver Broncos
Closing spread
DEN -9.5
✓ TEN W
Total
43.5
▼ Under · 32 pts
Model before kickoff
TEN 18–27 DEN
✓ DEN (79%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenDEN -8.5
CloseDEN -9.5
Total41.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDEN -8.5
1 → DEN
CloseDEN -9.5
1 pt toward Denver Broncos
Total
Open41.5
▲ 2
Close43.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DEN -8.5 · closed DEN -9.5 · moved 1 toward DENmodel DEN -5
model DEN -5
Opened 41.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 2 upmodel 45
model 45
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 46% (63 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (61 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenDEN -8.5
CloseDEN -9.5
Total41.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
DEN as a 9.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: DEN won 20–12; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 83%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 55%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 8.7; 42.7 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-8.5 | 9–10 | L | U39.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-8.5 | 27–17 | W | O40.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total |
-7.5 | 26–8 | W | U41.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-8.5 | 30–24 | L | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total |
-9.5 | 34–7 | W | U43.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread |
-10.5 | 26–34 | L | O44.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread |
-10.5 | 30–13 | W | O41.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-7.5 | 20–29 | L | O41.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-9.5 | 23–14 | L | U41.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & total |
-6.5 | 26–20 | L | O42.5 |
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HOUHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Denver Broncos ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Denver Broncos
1 pt (DEN -8.5 → DEN -9.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved up 2
41.5 → 43.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
Tennessee Titans have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 TEN | 2-8 20% | 1-9 10% | 6-4 60% |
| DEN | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
The series
TEN 4–6 DEN
DEN leads · 10 games since 2004 · DEN has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
DEN +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
82° · 2 mph
gusts 15 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TEN1st game
DEN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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IND
LV @ 
CAR @ 
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LAR
PHI
CIN @ 
CLE
ARI @ 
PIT @