Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at New York Jets
Closing spread
PIT -2.5
✓ NYJ W
Total
38.5
▲ Over · 66 pts
Model before kickoff
PIT 23–21 NYJ
✓ PIT (58%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPIT -2.5
ClosePIT -2.5
Total38.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPIT -2.5
no move
ClosePIT -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open38.5
no move
Close38.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PIT -2.5 · unchangedmodel NYJ -0.5
model NYJ -0.5
Opened 38.5 · unchangedmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (101 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPIT -2.5
ClosePIT -2.5
Total38.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
PIT as a 2.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: PIT won 34–32; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 38.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 61%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 45%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 2.9; 44.3 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 23–16 | W | O37.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-2.5 | 24–27 | L | O40.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total |
-2.5 | 16–20 | L | U38.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread |
-2.5 | 25–24 | L | O41.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation |
-2.5 | 15–10 | W | U36.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-3.5 | 24–17 | W | U42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation |
-3.5 | 32–13 | W | O36.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 30–27 | W | O39.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread |
-3.5 | 32–25 | W | O41.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-3.5 | 23–20 | L | O39.5 |
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SEAHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Pittsburgh Steelers have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 88 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–41.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
 NYJ | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
PIT 10–6 NYJ
PIT leads · 16 games since 2000 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 2024 | New York Jets 15 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 37 | NYJ -2.5 | PIT W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NYJ +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
65° · 4 mph
gusts 11 mph · 0.024 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
PIT1st game
NYJ1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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