Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Indianapolis Colts
Closing spread
IND -1.5
✓ IND W
Total
47.5
▼ Under · 41 pts
Model before kickoff
MIA 23–24 IND
✓ IND (55%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenIND -1.5
CloseIND -1.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIND -1.5
no move
CloseIND -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open47.5
no move
Close47.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IND -1.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -1
model MIA -1
Opened 47.5 · unchangedmodel 47.5 matches the line
model 47.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 51% (74 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenIND -1.5
CloseIND -1.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
IND as a 1.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: IND won 33–8; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 2.2; 46.9 points a game (usually 42.7). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 17–37 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-1.5 | 29–9 | W | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 20–12 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 36–30 | W | O43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-2.5 | 27–20 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread |
-1.5 | 38–6 | W | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-2.5 | 10–31 | L | U49.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 21–16 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-1.5 | 29–31 | L | O50.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 26–24 | L | O42.5 |
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NOHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Miami Dolphins have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIA | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| IND | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
MIA 8–11 IND
IND leads · 19 games since 1999 · IND has won the last 3 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 2024 | Miami Dolphins 10 @ Indianapolis Colts 16 | IND -3.5 | IND W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
IND +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
MIA1st game
IND1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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CAR @ 
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TEN @ 
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DAL @ 
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