Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Los Angeles Rams
Closing spread
LAR -3.5
✓ LAR W
Total
43.5
▼ Under · 23 pts
Model before kickoff
HOU 21–25 LAR
✓ LAR (62%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLAR -2.5
CloseLAR -3.5
Total44.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLAR -2.5
1 → LAR
CloseLAR -3.5
1 pt toward Los Angeles Rams
Total
Open44.5
▼ 1
Close43.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LAR -2.5 · closed LAR -3.5 · moved 1 toward LARmodel LAR -1.5
model LAR -1.5
Opened 44.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 1 downmodel 46
model 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 54% (141 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 39% (23 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLAR -2.5
CloseLAR -3.5
Total44.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
LAR as a 3.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: LAR won 14–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 64%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 45%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 3.4; 45.9 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-2.5 | 21–16 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 18–30 | L | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3.5 | 37–34 | L | O44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar total & situation |
-4.5 | 24–17 | W | U42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-3.5 | 34–13 | W | O43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-3 | 22–10 | W | U40.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 26–24 | L | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 27–20 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 13–18 | L | U41.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total |
-4.5 | 27–28 | L | O43.5 |
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NYJHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Los Angeles Rams ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Los Angeles Rams
1 pt (LAR -2.5 → LAR -3.5), through the key number 3. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Houston Texans have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 HOU | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| LAR | 7-3 70% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
The series
HOU 1–5 LAR
LAR leads · 6 games since 2005 · LAR has won the last 4 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
LAR +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
89° · 5 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
HOU1st game
LAR1st game
Even
Travel
HOU 1,375 mi
2 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
MIA @ 
CAR @ 
DEN
SF @ 
DAL @ 
PHI
TB @ 
CIN @ 
NE