Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Seattle Seahawks · Division game
Closing spread
SF -1.5
✓ SF W
Total
44.5
▼ Under · 30 pts
Model before kickoff
SF 24–23 SEA
✓ SF (55%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSF -2.5
CloseSF -1.5
Total44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSF -2.5
1 → SEA
CloseSF -1.5
1 pt toward Seattle Seahawks
Total
Open44.5
no move
Close44.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SF -2.5 · closed SF -1.5 · moved 1 toward SEAmodel SF -0.5
model SF -0.5
Opened 44.5 · unchangedmodel 46.5
model 46.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 56% (64 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 37% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSF -2.5
CloseSF -1.5
Total44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
SF as a 1.5-point road favorite at SEA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: SF won 17–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 2.1; 38.9 points a game (usually 42.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2 | 7–34 | L | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-2.5 | 20–30 | L | O46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total |
-1.5 | 15–17 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-1.5 | 23–20 | W | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 19–9 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-2.5 | 27–24 | W | O43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 9–27 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-0.5 | 17–13 | W | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-3.5 | 22–17 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1.5 | 29–10 | W | U45.5 |
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PITHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Seattle Seahawks ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Seattle Seahawks
1 pt (SF -2.5 → SF -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
San Francisco 49ers have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 51% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 3-7 30% | 2-8 20% | 7-3 70% |
 SEA | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 4 since 2023
SF 21–31 SEA
SEA leads · 52 games since 2002 · SF has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17 2024 | Seattle Seahawks 20 @ San Francisco 49ers 17 | SF -6.5 | SEA W |
| Oct 10 2024 | San Francisco 49ers 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 24 | SF -3.5 | SF W |
| Dec 10 2023 | Seattle Seahawks 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 28 | SF -14 | SEA W |
| Nov 23 2023 | San Francisco 49ers 31 @ Seattle Seahawks 13 | SF -7 | SF W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
SEA +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
69° · 6 mph
gusts 16 mph · at kickoff
Rest
SF1st game
SEA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
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