49ers @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sun, Sep 14, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

1-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

0-1 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

SF -2.5

✓ SF W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 23–20 NO

✓ SF (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -7.5

CloseSF -2.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -7.5

5 → NO

CloseSF -2.5

5 pts toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open43.5

▼ 3

Close40.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -7.5 · closed SF -2.5 · moved 5 toward NOmodel SF -0.5

model SF -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (104 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -7.5

CloseSF -2.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like SF as a 2.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 26–21; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 47 points went over 40.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14 against an average line of 3.5; 28 points a game (usually 43.6). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
NO L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF U	0-1	0%	1-0
NO U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 116 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
NO	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 9–12 NO NO leads · 21 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+1.8▲ 0.9#6

NO−1.6 →−1.9▼ 0.3#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

◀ SF better

#21

#10

Defense

Even

#12

0.0 #15

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #14

72 plays #2

Pace

◀ SF faster

69 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #21	20.0 #15	NO
Yards / play	5.33 #11	4.52 #6	NO
EPA / play	+0.11 #13	+0.04 #17	Even
Success rate	50% #4	41% #10	SF

When NO has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	NO off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #25	13.0 #5	SF
Yards / play	4.57 #25	4.60 #9	SF
EPA / play	−0.04 #19	−0.27 #2	SF
Success rate	43% #16	47% #23	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.