Falcons @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sun, Sep 14, 2025, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

0-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota Vikings

1-0 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

✓ ATL W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 22–25 MIN

✗ MIN (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -3.5

CloseMIN -3.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -3.5

no move

CloseMIN -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -3.5 · unchangedmodel MIN -2

model MIN -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 54% (147 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -3.5

CloseMIN -3.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 22–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 44.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 45%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 3.4; 51.3 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	IND vs TEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	38–30	W	O43.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL L	0-1	0%	—	—
MIN W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL U	0-1	0%	0-1
MIN O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
MIN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ATL 6–9 MIN MIN leads · 15 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 8 2024	Atlanta Falcons 21 @ Minnesota Vikings 42	MIN -5.5	MIN W
Nov 5 2023	Minnesota Vikings 31 @ Atlanta Falcons 28	ATL -4.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.4 →−0.2▲ 0.2#19

MIN+1.0 →+0.8▼ 0.2#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ATL

Longer bar = better

MIN

#19

Offense

Even

#20

#11

Defense

Even

#11

0.0 #14

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #15

71 plays #3

Pace

◀ ATL faster

49 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	ATL off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #23	24.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	5.04 #22	5.03 #12	MIN
EPA / play	+0.06 #16	−0.07 #6	MIN
Success rate	44% #16	38% #4	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	MIN off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	23.0 #16	MIN
Yards / play	5.18 #18	4.64 #6	ATL
EPA / play	−0.18 #31	+0.11 #22	ATL
Success rate	41% #25	36% #1	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.