Mon, Sep 8, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Chicago Bears · Division game
Closing spread
CHI -1.5
✓ MIN W
Total
43.5
▲ Over · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
MIN 22–23 CHI
✗ CHI (54%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMIN -1.5
CloseCHI -1.5
Total43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIN -1.5
3 → CHI
CloseCHI -1.5
3 pts toward Chicago Bears
Total
Open43.5
no move
Close43.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIN -1.5 · closed CHI -1.5 · moved 3 toward CHImodel MIN -1.5
model MIN -1.5
Opened 43.5 · unchangedmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 51% (78 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMIN -1.5
CloseCHI -1.5
Total43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CHI as a 1.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: MIN won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 2.3; 42.5 points a game (usually 42.7). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-2.5 | 21–13 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1.5 | 21–26 | L | O41.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-2.5 | 6–28 | L | U40.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-1.5 | 41–10 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 17–20 | L | U41.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1.5 | 23–20 | W | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-2.5 | 26–24 | L | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & situation |
-2.5 | 21–16 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-2 | 17–33 | L | O42.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 24–18 | W | O40.5 |
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DALHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Chicago Bears ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Chicago Bears
3 pts (MIN -1.5 → CHI -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Minnesota Vikings have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 139 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| CHI | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 4 since 2023
MIN 29–26 CHI
MIN leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16 2024 | Chicago Bears 12 @ Minnesota Vikings 30 | MIN -6.5 | MIN W |
| Nov 24 2024 | Minnesota Vikings 30 @ Chicago Bears 27 | MIN -2.5 | MIN W |
| Nov 27 2023 | Chicago Bears 12 @ Minnesota Vikings 10 | MIN -3 | CHI W |
| Oct 15 2023 | Minnesota Vikings 19 @ Chicago Bears 13 | MIN -3.5 | MIN W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CHI +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
66° · 5 mph
gusts 12 mph · at kickoff
Rest
MIN1st game
CHI1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
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