Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at New Orleans Saints
Closing spread
ARI -5.5
✓ ARI W
Total
44.5
▼ Under · 33 pts
Model before kickoff
ARI 26–21 NO
✓ ARI (68%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARI -5.5
CloseARI -5.5
Total44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARI -5.5
no move
CloseARI -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open44.5
no move
Close44.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARI -5.5 · unchangedmodel ARI -3.5
model ARI -3.5
Opened 44.5 · unchangedmodel 47
model 47
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 53% (43 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARI -5.5
CloseARI -5.5
Total44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ARI as a 5.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: ARI won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 69%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 4.9; 38.1 points a game (usually 45.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread |
-5.5 | 20–15 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-4.5 | 6–3 | L | U42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread |
-6.5 | 24–27 | L | O44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-4.5 | 24–26 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 15–9 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings |
-4.5 | 17–20 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total |
-4.5 | 30–20 | W | O46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-5.5 | 23–13 | W | U40.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 22–17 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-4.5 | 28–22 | W | O42.5 |
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NEHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Arizona Cardinals have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
 NO | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
The series
ARI 5–6 NO
NO leads · 11 games since 2000 · ARI has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NO +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
ARI1st game
NO1st game
Even
Travel
ARI 1,324 mi
2 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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HOU @ 
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LAC
CIN @ 
CLE
MIA @ 
PIT @ 
NYJ