Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Jacksonville Jaguars
Closing spread
JAX -4.5
✓ JAX W
Total
44.5
▼ Under · 36 pts
Model before kickoff
CAR 22–26 JAX
✓ JAX (66%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenJAX -2.5
CloseJAX -4.5
Total46.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenJAX -2.5
2 → JAX
CloseJAX -4.5
2 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars
Total
Open46.5
▼ 2
Close44.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened JAX -2.5 · closed JAX -4.5 · moved 2 toward JAXmodel JAX -3.5
model JAX -3.5
Opened 46.5 · closed 44.5 · moved 2 downmodel 48
model 48
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 55% (92 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 36% (22 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenJAX -2.5
CloseJAX -4.5
Total46.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
JAX as a 4.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: JAX won 26–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 67%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 4.4; 49.1 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-5.5 | 21–22 | L | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 13–18 | L | U41.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-3.5 | 37–34 | L | O44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-4.5 | 24–17 | W | U42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-3.5 | 18–30 | L | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-4.5 | 27–28 | L | O43.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation |
-4.5 | 27–28 | L | O46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total |
-2.5 | 21–16 | W | U43.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total |
-6.5 | 34–13 | W | O46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread |
-5.5 | 42–21 | W | O46.5 |
PHI
ATL
CLE
IND
CHI
TEN
ARI
SEA
NYJ
MIA
GB
MINHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Jacksonville Jaguars ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Jacksonville Jaguars
2 pts (JAX -2.5 → JAX -4.5), through the key number 3. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved down 2
46.5 → 44.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
Carolina Panthers have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 53% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 CAR | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 8-2 80% |
| JAX | 2-8 20% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
CAR 4–4 JAX
Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 2023 | Carolina Panthers 0 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 26 | JAX -3.5 | JAX W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
JAX +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
80° · 1 mph
gusts 9 mph · 0.008 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
CAR1st game
JAX1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
TB @ 
NO
DEN
HOU @ 
LAR
DAL @ 
KC vs 
LAC
CIN @ 
LV @ 
NE
PIT @