Sun, Sep 7, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game
Closing spread
ATL -1.5
✓ TB W
Total
47.5
▼ Under · 43 pts
Model before kickoff
TB 24–25 ATL
✗ ATL (54%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTB -2.5
CloseATL -1.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTB -2.5
4 → ATL
CloseATL -1.5
4 pts toward Atlanta Falcons
Total
Open47.5
no move
Close47.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TB -2.5 · closed ATL -1.5 · moved 4 toward ATLmodel TB -2
model TB -2
Opened 47.5 · unchangedmodel 48.5
model 48.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 51% (74 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTB -2.5
CloseATL -1.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ATL as a 1.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: TB won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 47.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.1; 40.8 points a game (usually 42.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total |
-1.5 | 41–10 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-1.5 | 23–20 | W | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 21–13 | W | U43.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 10–31 | L | U49.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation |
-2.5 | 12–15 | L | U48.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total |
-1.5 | 18–15 | W | U46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1.5 | 21–26 | L | O41.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 1 · close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 6–28 | L | U40.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation |
-2.5 | 21–16 | W | U43.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Postseason · close · similar total |
-2.5 | 32–29 | W | O49.5 |
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KCHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Atlanta Falcons ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Atlanta Falcons
4 pts (TB -2.5 → ATL -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| ATL | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 4 since 2023
TB 25–25 ATL
Series tied · 50 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 2024 | Atlanta Falcons 31 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 | ATL -0.5 | ATL W |
| Oct 3 2024 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 @ Atlanta Falcons 36 | ATL -2.5 | ATL W |
| Dec 10 2023 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 @ Atlanta Falcons 25 | ATL -1.5 | TB W |
| Oct 22 2023 | Atlanta Falcons 16 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 | TB -2.5 | ATL W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ATL +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
TB1st game
ATL1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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