Buccaneers @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Mon, Sep 15, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Houston Texans

0-1 · Power #3

final

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

✓ TB W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 22–24 HOU

✗ HOU (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1.5

1 → HOU

CloseHOU -2.5

1 pt toward Houston Texans

Total

Open45.5

▼ 3

Close42.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1.5 · closed HOU -2.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel TB -1.5

model TB -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (147 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (67 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 2.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 20–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.4 against an average line of 2.9; 51.4 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Very close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
HOU L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB U	0-1	0%	1-0
HOU U	0-1	0%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 53% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
HOU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TB 2–5 HOU HOU leads · 7 games since 2003 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 5 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37 @ Houston Texans 39	HOU -2.5	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+1.2 →+1.0▼ 0.2#10

HOU+0.6 →+0.3▼ 0.3#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

HOU

#21

Offense

◀ TB better

#29

#15

Defense

HOU better ▶

#10

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−1.0 #26

56 plays #26

Pace

Even

57 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TB off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #15	14.0 #2	HOU
Yards / play	4.64 #26	5.19 #17	HOU
EPA / play	+0.11 #10	−0.04 #10	Even
Success rate	36% #31	42% #10	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	HOU off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	9.0 #32	20.0 #11	TB
Yards / play	4.65 #25	5.04 #13	TB
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	+0.06 #19	TB
Success rate	37% #30	44% #18	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.