Broncos @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sun, Sep 14, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

1-0 · Power #8

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

1-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

✓ IND W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 24–22 IND

✗ DEN (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -2.5

CloseDEN -1.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -2.5

1 → IND

CloseDEN -1.5

1 pt toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -2.5 · closed DEN -1.5 · moved 1 toward INDmodel DEN -0.5

model DEN -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 57% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 36% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -2.5

CloseDEN -1.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like DEN as a 1.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 29–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 57 points went over 43.5, as in 0 of 3.

Favorite won

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 9.7 against an average line of 2.3; 37 points a game (usually 42.8). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Close	SF @ MIN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	17–23	L	U46.5
Loose	SF @ SEA 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.5	17–13	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
IND W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN U	0-1	0%	1-0
IND U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 147 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
IND	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DEN 6–14 IND IND leads · 20 games since 2001 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 15 2024	Indianapolis Colts 13 @ Denver Broncos 31	DEN -3.5	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+0.4 →+1.0▲ 0.6#9

IND−0.8 →+1.1▲ 1.9#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

DEN

Longer bar = better

IND

#24

Offense

IND better ▶

Defense

◀ DEN better

−2.0 #31

Turnovers

IND better ▶

+3.0 #1

71 plays #5

Pace

Even

70 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	DEN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #16	8.0 #1	IND
Yards / play	4.46 #27	4.59 #8	IND
EPA / play	−0.15 #26	−0.26 #3	IND
Success rate	39% #26	43% #16	IND

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #4	12.0 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #9	2.42 #1	DEN
EPA / play	+0.26 #3	−0.41 #1	Even
Success rate	53% #2	24% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.