Patriots @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sun, Sep 14, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Weather at kickoff87°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

0-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

0-1 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

✓ NE W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 21–24 MIA

✗ MIA (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -1.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -1.5

1 → MIA

CloseMIA -2.5

1 pt toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -1.5 · closed MIA -2.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel MIA -4

model MIA -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (143 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (63 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -1.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like MIA as a 2.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 33–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 60 points went over 42.5, as in 1 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 3.1; 39.8 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	LAC vs LV 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & spread	-3	22–10	W	U40.5
Loose	LAR vs HOU 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	14–9	W	U43.5
Loose	NE vs LV 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–20	L	U44.5
Loose	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE L	0-1	0%	—	—
MIA L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE U	0-1	0%	0-1
MIA U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q3. Of 137 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MIA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

NE 29–25 MIA NE leads · 54 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2024	New England Patriots 15 @ Miami Dolphins 34	MIA -7.5	MIA W
Oct 6 2024	Miami Dolphins 15 @ New England Patriots 10	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Oct 29 2023	New England Patriots 17 @ Miami Dolphins 31	MIA -7.5	MIA W
Sep 17 2023	Miami Dolphins 24 @ New England Patriots 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−2.3 →−2.9▼ 0.6#30

MIA0.0 →−1.8▼ 1.8#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

MIA

#22

Offense

◀ NE better

#26

#21

Defense

◀ NE better

#28

0.0 #20

Turnovers

◀ NE better

−3.0 #32

68 plays #8

Pace

◀ NE faster

46 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #26	33.0 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.94 #18	5.97 #24	NE
EPA / play	−0.07 #22	+0.26 #30	NE
Success rate	41% #22	53% #30	NE

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	8.0 #31	20.0 #17	NE
Yards / play	4.59 #24	6.27 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.26 #30	+0.11 #21	NE
Success rate	43% #17	43% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.