Steelers @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff65°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

1-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

1-1 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

PIT -1.5

✓ PIT W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 24–22 NE

✓ PIT (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -1.5

ClosePIT -1.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -1.5

no move

ClosePIT -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -1.5 · unchangedmodel NE -0.5

model NE -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 57% (69 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -1.5

ClosePIT -1.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 1.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 21–14; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 58%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 2.8; 41.5 points a game (usually 42.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5
Close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Close	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
NE LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OO	2-0	100%	1-1
NE UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
NE	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PIT 5–15 NE NE leads · 20 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2023	New England Patriots 21 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 18	PIT -5.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT+0.5 →−1.0▼ 1.5#21

NE−2.3 →−2.4▼ 0.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

PIT

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

NE better ▶

#12

#28

Defense

Even

#25

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

+0.5 #14

57 plays #25

Pace

NE faster ▶

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #8	23.5 #20	PIT
Yards / play	4.76 #25	6.55 #31	PIT
EPA / play	−0.01 #22	+0.14 #25	Even
Success rate	38% #29	46% #24	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #14	31.5 #29	NE
Yards / play	5.44 #13	6.26 #29	NE
EPA / play	+0.11 #10	+0.14 #27	NE
Success rate	45% #11	47% #26	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

PIT scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	6.5	9.0	15.5	0.0	10.0	10.0
NE allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	8.0	5.0	13.0

NE scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	9.5	3.0	12.5	4.0	6.5	10.5
PIT allowed	8.0	5.0	13.0	7.0	11.5	18.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.