Texans @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Weather at kickoff86°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

0-2 · Power #3

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

1-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

✓ JAX W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 21–22 JAX

✓ JAX (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -1.5

CloseJAX -1.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -1.5

no move

CloseJAX -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -1.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -1

model HOU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 49% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -1.5

CloseJAX -1.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 1.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 17–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 3.1; 44.3 points a game (usually 42.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Loose	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5
Loose	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Loose	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Loose	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Loose	DEN vs LV 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	34–18	W	O35.5
Loose	SEA vs MIA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & situation	-4.5	24–3	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
JAX WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UU	0-2	0%	0-2
JAX UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
JAX	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

HOU 33–16 JAX HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 1 2024	Houston Texans 23 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20	HOU -3.5	JAX W
Sep 29 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Houston Texans 24	HOU -5.5	JAX W
Nov 26 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 24 @ Houston Texans 21	JAX -1	JAX W
Sep 24 2023	Houston Texans 37 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.6 →0.0▼ 0.6#17

JAX−2.1 →−1.0▲ 1.1#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

HOU

Longer bar = better

JAX

#26

Offense

JAX better ▶

#18

Defense

JAX better ▶

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+1.5 #3

52 plays #31

Pace

JAX faster ▶

67 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	HOU off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	20.5 #14	JAX
Yards / play	5.16 #18	4.80 #8	JAX
EPA / play	−0.10 #26	−0.13 #4	JAX
Success rate	38% #28	39% #6	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #7	17.0 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #8	5.09 #14	JAX
EPA / play	+0.12 #9	+0.06 #22	JAX
Success rate	49% #5	48% #27	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

HOU scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.5	3.0	9.5	0.0	4.5	4.5
JAX allowed	5.0	1.5	6.5	7.0	7.0	14.0

JAX scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	5.0	13.5	18.5	3.5	4.5	8.0
HOU allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	3.5	3.0	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.