Titans @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

0-3 · Power #31

final

Final

Houston Texans

0-3 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

✓ HOU W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 17–25 HOU

✓ HOU (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -6.5

CloseHOU -7.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -6.5

1 → HOU

CloseHOU -7.5

1 pt toward Houston Texans

Total

Open39.5

no move

Close39.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -6.5 · closed HOU -7.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel HOU -8

model HOU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 47% (77 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 15% (20 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -6.5

CloseHOU -7.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 7.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 26–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 39.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 7.2; 49.8 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Close	LAR vs LV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	20–15	L	U43.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	DAL vs NYG 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	40–37	L	O44.5
Close	ARI vs CAR 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–22	L	O45.5
Loose	ATL vs NYG 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-9.5	34–7	W	U43.5
Loose	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Loose	MIA vs LV 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & spread	-8.5	34–19	W	O43.5
Loose	HOU vs JAX 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–20	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-2
HOU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UOO	2-1	67%	0-3
HOU UUU	0-3	0%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 57% of games with totals 36.5–42.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
HOU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

TEN 24–25 HOU HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	Houston Texans 23 @ Tennessee Titans 14	TEN -2.5	HOU W
Nov 24 2024	Tennessee Titans 32 @ Houston Texans 27	HOU -7.5	TEN W
Dec 31 2023	Tennessee Titans 3 @ Houston Texans 26	HOU -5.5	HOU W
Dec 17 2023	Houston Texans 19 @ Tennessee Titans 16	TEN -3	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.8 →−4.7▼ 2.9#32

HOU+0.6 →−0.5▼ 1.1#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TEN

Longer bar = better

HOU

#30

Offense

Even

#29

Defense

HOU better ▶

#12

+0.3 #12

Turnovers

◀ TEN better

−1.0 #26

61 plays #16

Pace

◀ TEN faster

54 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #28	17.0 #6	HOU
Yards / play	3.63 #32	4.86 #10	HOU
EPA / play	−0.23 #31	−0.01 #15	HOU
Success rate	36% #30	44% #17	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	12.7 #32	31.3 #30	Even
Yards / play	4.95 #23	6.13 #30	HOU
EPA / play	−0.14 #28	+0.17 #30	Even
Success rate	36% #32	47% #27	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	2.0 #28	7.3 #14	9.3 #21	4.3 #12	3.3 #31	7.7 #30
HOU allowed	4.7 #16	4.7 #7	9.3 #13	3.3 #11	4.3 #6	7.7 #4

HOU scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.3 #15	3.0 #30	7.3 #28	0.0 #32	5.3 #26	5.3 #32
TEN allowed	9.0 #30	4.3 #6	13.3 #22	9.0 #31	9.0 #24	18.0 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.