Texans @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff75°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

1-3 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

1-3 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 23–21 BAL

✓ HOU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -3.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -3.5

6 → HOU

CloseHOU -2.5

6 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open43.5

▼ 2

Close41.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -3.5 · closed HOU -2.5 · moved 6 toward HOUmodel HOU -1

model HOU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (113 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -3.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 2.5-point road favorite at BAL, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 44–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 2.3; 50.9 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TB @ NO 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	51–27	W	O42.5
Loose	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & season form	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Loose	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2	6–23	L	U43
Loose	DEN @ NO 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	33–10	W	O37.5
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	36–22	W	O40
Loose	NO @ IND 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-2	38–27	W	O44
Loose	LV @ NO 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	25–10	W	U37.5
Loose	CLE @ IND 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	39–38	L	O40.5
Loose	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	30–26	W	O43
Loose	ARI @ SEA 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-1.5	6–16	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	1-1
BAL LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	—

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; BAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3
BAL OOOO	4-0	100%	1-3

Went over in Q3. Of 142 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
BAL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

HOU 3–13 BAL BAL leads · 16 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 25 2024	Baltimore Ravens 31 @ Houston Texans 2	BAL -6.5	BAL W
Jan 20 2023	Houston Texans 10 @ Baltimore Ravens 34	BAL -10	BAL W
Sep 10 2023	Houston Texans 9 @ Baltimore Ravens 25	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.6 →+0.7▲ 0.1#16

BAL+3.6 →+2.5▼ 1.1#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

HOU

Longer bar = better

BAL

#27

Offense

BAL better ▶

Defense

◀ HOU better

#28

−0.5 #22

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #21

57 plays #27

Pace

◀ HOU faster

53 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #29	33.3 #32	Even
Yards / play	5.09 #23	5.69 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #24	+0.14 #29	HOU
Success rate	37% #30	47% #25	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #3	12.8 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.44 #2	4.66 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.08 #6	Even
Success rate	46% #10	42% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.0 #20	3.0 #31	7.0 #29	0.0 #32	9.0 #8	9.0 #27
BAL allowed	4.3 #13	8.3 #23	12.5 #21	7.5 #32	13.3 #32	20.8 #32

BAL scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	5.0 #11	8.5 #8	13.5 #12	8.5 #1	10.8 #4	19.3 #1
HOU allowed	3.5 #9	3.5 #2	7.0 #3	2.5 #4	3.3 #3	5.8 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.