Cowboys @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff81°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

1-2-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

0-4 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

✓ DAL W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 24–26 NYJ

✗ NYJ (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDAL -1.5

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDAL -1.5

4 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -2.5

4 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open44.5

▲ 3

Close47.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DAL -1.5 · closed NYJ -2.5 · moved 4 toward NYJmodel DAL -0.5

model DAL -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (160 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDAL -1.5

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 2.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 37–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 2.9; 46.6 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	LV vs CHI 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	24–25	L	O46.5
Close	LV vs JAX 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	19–14	W	U41.5
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Close	NE vs DET 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	29–0	W	U47
Loose	CHI vs DET 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	30–31	L	O48.5
Loose	ATL vs DAL 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–21	W	U51.5
Loose	ATL vs CHI 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-2	27–24	W	O48
Loose	GB vs MIN 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	41–17	W	O47.5
Loose	LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	17–14	P	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-0
NYJ WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UOUO	2-2	50%	1-2-1
NYJ OUOO	3-1	75%	0-4

Went over in Q4. Of 126 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NYJ	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DAL 4–4 NYJ Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	New York Jets 10 @ Dallas Cowboys 30	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−1.0 →−1.8▼ 0.8#23

NYJ−1.0 →−2.1▼ 1.1#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

DAL

Longer bar = better

NYJ

Offense

◀ DAL better

#16

#31

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#20

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

Even

−1.8 #32

68 plays #2

Pace

◀ DAL faster

57 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #5	30.0 #29	DAL
Yards / play	5.92 #6	5.39 #17	DAL
EPA / play	+0.13 #5	+0.13 #28	DAL
Success rate	49% #6	40% #6	Even

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #19	33.0 #31	NYJ
Yards / play	5.32 #17	6.40 #31	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.01 #21	+0.26 #32	NYJ
Success rate	48% #7	51% #31	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	2.5 #28	12.5 #1	15.0 #7	3.5 #25	8.5 #10	12.0 #12
NYJ allowed	5.8 #24	11.0 #30	16.8 #28	5.0 #17	8.3 #21	13.3 #23

NYJ scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.0 #26	4.8 #26	7.8 #27	3.5 #25	11.3 #3	14.8 #5
DAL allowed	8.5 #30	9.3 #27	17.8 #30	5.0 #17	9.5 #26	14.5 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.