Patriots @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Weather at kickoff70°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

2-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo Bills

4-0 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

✓ NE W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 20–28 BUF

✗ BUF (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -8.5

CloseBUF -7.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -8.5

1 → NE

CloseBUF -7.5

1 pt toward New England Patriots

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -8.5 · closed BUF -7.5 · moved 1 toward NEmodel BUF -11

model BUF -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 48% (82 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 39% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -8.5

CloseBUF -7.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 7.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.3 against an average line of 7.5; 49.7 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Close	BUF vs DEN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–7	W	U48.5
Close	SF vs SEA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	17–20	L	U48.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	DET vs CHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-10	23–20	L	U48.5
Close	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Close	BAL vs DEN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	41–10	W	O46.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & total	-6.5	55–23	W	O47.5
Close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LWLW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-1
BUF WWLL	2-2	50%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOUO	2-2	50%	2-2
BUF OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 50% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
BUF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

NE 40–16 BUF NE leads · 56 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	Buffalo Bills 16 @ New England Patriots 23	BUF -3.5	NE W
Dec 22 2024	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -14.5	NE W
Dec 31 2023	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 27	BUF -15.5	NE W
Oct 22 2023	Buffalo Bills 25 @ New England Patriots 29	BUF -7.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−2.3 →−1.7▲ 0.6#22

BUF+2.6 →+4.4▲ 1.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

BUF

#11

Offense

BUF better ▶

#21

Defense

BUF better ▶

#15

−0.8 #26

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+0.8 #9

61 plays #20

Pace

BUF faster ▶

66 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #10	22.5 #18	NE
Yards / play	5.56 #10	5.25 #14	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #10	+0.01 #17	NE
Success rate	45% #15	42% #11	Even

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #2	20.3 #11	BUF
Yards / play	6.14 #5	5.60 #22	BUF
EPA / play	+0.23 #1	+0.05 #23	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	48% #26	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.5 #7	8.5 #8	15.0 #7	3.8 #22	6.8 #18	10.5 #19
BUF allowed	4.3 #13	7.5 #22	11.8 #21	5.0 #20	5.8 #12	10.8 #12

BUF scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	9.5 #1	5.8 #24	15.3 #4	5.8 #9	12.3 #1	18.0 #2
NE allowed	5.0 #20	5.3 #12	10.3 #13	4.0 #12	6.0 #13	10.0 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.