Bills @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Mon, Oct 13, 2025, 7:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

4-1 · Power #4

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

2-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

✓ ATL W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 26–22 ATL

✗ BUF (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -4.5

CloseBUF -3.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -4.5

1 → ATL

CloseBUF -3.5

1 pt toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -4.5 · closed BUF -3.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel BUF -4

model BUF -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (106 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 42% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -4.5

CloseBUF -3.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 3.5-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 24–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 3.4; 58.1 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET @ SF 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	40–34	W	O50.5
Very close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Very close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Very close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	BUF @ LAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	42–44	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-0	1-3
ATL LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOOU	3-2	60%	4-1
ATL UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 50% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
ATL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 2–5 ATL ATL leads · 7 games since 2001 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.6 →+3.5▲ 0.9#3

ATL−0.4 →+0.7▲ 1.1#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BUF

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ BUF better

#21

#18

Defense

ATL better ▶

#11

+0.2 #13

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #11

65 plays #5

Pace

Even

66 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #3	21.5 #16	BUF
Yards / play	6.11 #4	4.69 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.19 #2	−0.04 #8	BUF
Success rate	50% #3	44% #16	BUF

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #27	22.6 #18	BUF
Yards / play	5.50 #14	5.41 #19	ATL
EPA / play	−0.02 #22	+0.02 #21	Even
Success rate	44% #20	43% #12	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	7.6 #3	5.2 #25	12.8 #10	6.0 #6	11.8 #1	17.8 #1
ATL allowed	1.8 #3	7.3 #22	9.0 #8	5.8 #28	6.8 #17	12.5 #22

ATL scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #11	3.3 #29	9.0 #26	5.0 #13	5.0 #26	10.0 #22
BUF allowed	4.0 #12	6.6 #19	10.6 #16	5.4 #23	6.6 #15	12.0 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.