Bears @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Mon, Oct 13, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff57°F13 mphgusts 27Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Chicago Bears

2-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

3-2 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

WSH -5.5

✓ CHI W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 20–26 WSH

✗ WSH (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -4.5

CloseWSH -5.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -4.5

1 → WSH

CloseWSH -5.5

1 pt toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -4.5 · closed WSH -5.5 · moved 1 toward WSHmodel WSH -7

model WSH -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 53% (86 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (80 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -4.5

CloseWSH -5.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 5.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 25–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 5.7; 49.4 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs SEA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	17–20	L	U48.5
Very close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	IND vs LV 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	40–6	W	U46.5
Close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1
WSH WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OOUO	3-1	75%	2-2
WSH UUOOU	2-3	40%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 112 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
WSH	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CHI 5–10 WSH WSH leads · 15 games since 1999 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 27 2024	Chicago Bears 15 @ Washington Commanders 18	WSH -1.5	WSH W
Oct 5 2023	Chicago Bears 40 @ Washington Commanders 20	WSH -6	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−1.4 →−1.7▼ 0.3#23

WSH+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CHI

Longer bar = better

WSH

#21

Offense

WSH better ▶

#27

Defense

WSH better ▶

#15

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

0.0 #13

62 plays #13

Pace

◀ CHI faster

58 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	CHI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #10	20.2 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #20	5.57 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #23	+0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	41% #29	42% #9	WSH

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #7	29.3 #29	WSH
Yards / play	6.02 #5	6.72 #32	WSH
EPA / play	+0.13 #7	+0.01 #16	WSH
Success rate	49% #7	50% #29	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.8 #2	6.5 #18	14.3 #7	5.3 #12	5.8 #22	11.0 #17
WSH allowed	6.0 #24	4.8 #6	10.8 #17	4.0 #12	5.4 #8	9.4 #6

WSH scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.8 #28	8.6 #6	11.4 #18	6.0 #7	9.4 #6	15.4 #3
CHI allowed	6.0 #24	9.5 #28	15.5 #28	4.3 #14	9.5 #25	13.8 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.