Browns @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Pittsburgh Steelers · Division game

Weather at kickoff65°F8 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

1-4 · Power #29

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

3-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -6.5

✓ PIT W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 17–23 PIT

✓ PIT (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -4.5

ClosePIT -6.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -4.5

2 → PIT

ClosePIT -6.5

2 pts toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open38.5

▼ 1

Close37.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -4.5 · closed PIT -6.5 · moved 2 toward PITmodel PIT -5

model PIT -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -4.5

ClosePIT -6.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 6.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 23–9; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 37.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 7.1; 47.3 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Close	LAR vs LV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	20–15	L	U43.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Loose	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Loose	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Loose	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WLWLL	2-3	40%	0-2	2-3
PIT LLWW	2-2	50%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE UOUUO	2-3	40%	1-4
PIT OOUO	3-1	75%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 56% of games with totals 34.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%
PIT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

CLE 14–42 PIT (1 tied) PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 8 2024	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 27	PIT -6.5	PIT W
Nov 21 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 19 @ Cleveland Browns 24	PIT -3.5	CLE W
Nov 19 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 10 @ Cleveland Browns 13	CLE -2.5	CLE W
Sep 18 2023	Cleveland Browns 22 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 26	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−2.1 →−2.5▼ 0.4#24

PIT+0.5 →−0.9▼ 1.4#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CLE

Longer bar = better

PIT

#31

Offense

PIT better ▶

#18

Defense

◀ CLE better

#22

−0.8 #28

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+1.8 #1

66 plays #3

Pace

◀ CLE faster

54 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	CLE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	14.6 #31	24.5 #21	PIT
Yards / play	4.34 #30	5.69 #24	PIT
EPA / play	−0.17 #30	+0.04 #22	PIT
Success rate	35% #32	46% #22	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	PIT off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #16	24.6 #22	PIT
Yards / play	4.90 #25	4.42 #1	CLE
EPA / play	+0.03 #18	−0.03 #10	CLE
Success rate	45% #14	41% #4	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	2.8 #26	3.2 #29	6.0 #32	4.6 #13	4.0 #30	8.6 #27
PIT allowed	4.8 #18	5.0 #10	9.8 #14	3.5 #7	11.3 #30	14.8 #26

PIT scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	6.8 #6	8.0 #10	14.8 #6	1.8 #32	7.5 #13	9.3 #24
CLE allowed	4.8 #19	6.0 #16	10.8 #16	5.4 #23	8.4 #20	13.8 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.