Titans @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

1-4 · Power #31

final

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

1-4 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

LV -4.5

✓ LV W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 19–24 LV

✓ LV (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLV -5.5

CloseLV -4.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLV -5.5

1 → TEN

CloseLV -4.5

1 pt toward Tennessee Titans

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LV -5.5 · closed LV -4.5 · moved 1 toward TENmodel LV -4.5 matches the line

model LV -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (108 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 42% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLV -5.5

CloseLV -4.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 4.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 20–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 4.6; 44.8 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Very close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	DAL vs NYG 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	27–20	W	O39.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-2.5	27–21	W	O43.5
Close	IND vs TEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	38–30	W	O43.5
Close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Close	DAL vs NYG 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-4.5	40–37	L	O44.5
Close	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5
Loose	HOU vs TEN 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	26–0	W	U39.5
Loose	HOU vs JAX 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–20	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLLLW	2-3	40%	2-1	2-3
LV WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	1-4
LV UUOOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
LV	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 8–8 LV Series tied · 16 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.8 →−5.0▼ 3.2#32

LV−2.0 →−3.7▼ 1.7#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TEN

Longer bar = better

#32

Offense

LV better ▶

#27

#24

Defense

Even

#22

+0.2 #11

Turnovers

◀ TEN better

−1.2 #31

59 plays #23

Pace

LV faster ▶

61 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: LV defense

	TEN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	14.6 #32	27.8 #25	LV
Yards / play	3.96 #32	5.51 #19	LV
EPA / play	−0.20 #31	+0.06 #26	LV
Success rate	38% #31	45% #18	LV

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #30	28.2 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.27 #22	5.88 #29	LV
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	+0.11 #27	Even
Success rate	42% #26	44% #15	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	1.8 #32	5.0 #26	6.8 #29	2.6 #31	5.2 #24	7.8 #31
LV allowed	5.4 #21	9.8 #29	15.2 #27	8.8 #31	3.8 #4	12.6 #23

LV scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.6 #16	3.4 #28	8.0 #27	3.4 #24	5.2 #24	8.6 #29
TEN allowed	8.8 #31	4.6 #4	13.4 #25	5.4 #23	9.4 #23	14.8 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.