Jets @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Mon, Sep 29, 2025, 7:15 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Weather at kickoff81°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

0-3 · Power #32

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

0-3 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

✓ MIA W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 21–24 MIA

✓ MIA (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -2.5

no move

CloseMIA -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -2.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -2.5 matches the line

model MIA -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (159 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 2.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 27–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 3.3; 44.9 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Close	CAR vs DAL 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	14–30	L	O41.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	LV vs JAX 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form	-2.5	19–14	W	U41.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	27–33	L	O42.5
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Loose	DAL vs NYG 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	27–20	W	O39.5
Loose	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar spread	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1
MIA LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ OUO	2-1	67%	0-3
MIA UOO	2-1	67%	0-3

Went over in Q4. Of 162 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
MIA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

NYJ 26–28 MIA MIA leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	Miami Dolphins 20 @ New York Jets 32	NYJ -2.5	NYJ W
Dec 8 2024	New York Jets 26 @ Miami Dolphins 32	MIA -6.5	NYJ W
Dec 17 2023	New York Jets 0 @ Miami Dolphins 30	MIA -7	MIA W
Nov 24 2023	Miami Dolphins 34 @ New York Jets 13	MIA -8.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.0 →−2.4▼ 1.4#25

MIA0.0 →−2.5▼ 2.5#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NYJ

Longer bar = better

MIA

#22

Offense

Even

#20

#21

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#31

−1.3 #29

Turnovers

Even

−1.7 #31

57 plays #25

Pace

◀ NYJ faster

52 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #17	32.3 #31	NYJ
Yards / play	4.74 #25	6.10 #30	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.07 #24	+0.29 #32	NYJ
Success rate	44% #21	53% #32	NYJ

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	31.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #14	5.40 #19	MIA
EPA / play	0.00 #19	+0.13 #28	MIA
Success rate	44% #19	40% #7	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.0 #19	5.3 #25	9.3 #21	2.3 #29	11.3 #3	13.7 #5
MIA allowed	7.3 #27	9.0 #24	16.3 #27	6.0 #27	10.0 #27	16.0 #30

MIA scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.3 #28	7.0 #16	9.3 #21	2.0 #30	7.3 #14	9.3 #26
NYJ allowed	6.7 #24	12.3 #31	19.0 #30	2.0 #2	10.0 #27	12.0 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.