Vikings vs Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 4 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff59°F6 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

2-1 · Power #17

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

2-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

✓ PIT W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 22–20 PIT

✗ MIN (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -1.5

1 → MIN

CloseMIN -2.5

1 pt toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -1.5 · closed MIN -2.5 · moved 1 toward MINmodel PIT -3.5

model PIT -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (70 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like MIN as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against PIT, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 45 points went over 41.5, as in 0 of 2.

Favorite won

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 1.8; 39 points a game (usually 43.7). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIN vs NYJ 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Loose	JAX vs DEN 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	17–21	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MIN WLW	2-1	67%	—	1-1
PIT LLW	1-2	33%	—	—

Venue/role: MIN neutral, as favorite; PIT neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
PIT OOU	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 136 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
PIT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 2–5 PIT PIT leads · 7 games since 2001 · PIT has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+1.0 →+0.8▼ 0.2#14

PIT+0.5 →−0.9▼ 1.4#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MIN

Longer bar = better

PIT

#16

Offense

◀ MIN better

#21

Defense

◀ MIN better

#24

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

Even

+1.7 #3

51 plays #32

Pace

PIT faster ▶

54 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	25.7 #22	MIN
Yards / play	5.25 #17	5.88 #27	MIN
EPA / play	−0.15 #29	+0.04 #20	PIT
Success rate	45% #12	47% #25	MIN

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	PIT off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #13	18.7 #11	Even
Yards / play	4.57 #25	4.57 #7	MIN
EPA / play	−0.02 #21	−0.27 #1	MIN
Success rate	41% #23	37% #4	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.7 #13	10.7 #4	15.3 #5	4.7 #10	7.0 #13	11.7 #10
PIT allowed	5.3 #21	5.7 #11	11.0 #17	4.7 #18	10.0 #25	14.7 #27

PIT scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	6.7 #7	8.3 #9	15.0 #6	0.0 #31	9.0 #7	9.0 #26
MIN allowed	4.3 #15	3.0 #4	7.3 #5	3.3 #11	8.0 #19	11.3 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.