Packers @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

2-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

1-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -6.5

✓ DAL W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 27–20 DAL

GB 71%

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -6.5

CloseGB -6.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -6.5

no move

CloseGB -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -6.5 · unchangedmodel GB -4

model GB -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 46% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -6.5

CloseGB -6.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 6.5-point road favorite at DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: It ended 40–40; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 5.9; 38.6 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	0–30	L	U43.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	LAR @ TEN 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	33–19	W	O40.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	GB @ CLE 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	10–13	L	U40.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	2-1
DAL WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; DAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
DAL UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 141 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
DAL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GB 12–4 DAL (1 tied) GB leads · 17 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 14 2023	Green Bay Packers 48 @ Dallas Cowboys 32	DAL -7	GB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+2.2 →+3.5▲ 1.3#3

DAL−1.0 →−1.8▼ 0.8#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

DAL

#16

Offense

DAL better ▶

Defense

◀ GB better

#30

+0.3 #10

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−1.7 #32

57 plays #26

Pace

DAL faster ▶

69 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #20	30.7 #29	GB
Yards / play	5.26 #18	6.48 #31	GB
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	+0.23 #31	GB
Success rate	44% #18	49% #30	GB

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	DAL off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #12	14.7 #2	GB
Yards / play	5.73 #7	3.73 #1	GB
EPA / play	+0.05 #10	−0.12 #3	GB
Success rate	47% #7	36% #1	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.7 #10	5.7 #22	11.3 #18	3.3 #24	6.7 #16	10.0 #18
DAL allowed	9.0 #31	10.3 #29	19.3 #30	4.3 #17	7.0 #18	11.3 #19

DAL scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.3 #24	11.3 #1	14.7 #9	2.3 #28	6.7 #16	9.0 #27
GB allowed	0.0 #1	2.0 #1	2.0 #1	1.0 #2	11.7 #30	12.7 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.