Bengals @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff63°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

2-3 · Power #24

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

2-1-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -13.5

✓ CIN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 16–29 GB

✓ GB (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -14.5

CloseGB -13.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -14.5

1 → CIN

CloseGB -13.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -14.5 · closed GB -13.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel GB -10.5

model GB -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 41% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -14.5

CloseGB -13.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 13.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 27–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15 against an average line of 13; 49.8 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF vs NO 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	31–19	L	O48.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · loose	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Loose	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & spread	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Loose	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar total & situation	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Loose	BUF vs NE 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread	-14.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Loose	WSH vs DAL 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & situation	-10.5	26–34	L	O44.5
Loose	BUF vs MIA 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-11.5	31–21	L	O50.5
Loose	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · loose	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Loose	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-3	0-3
GB WWLL	2-2	50%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UOOUO	3-2	60%	2-3
GB UUUO	1-3	25%	2-1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 182 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
GB	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 3–3 GB Series tied · 6 games since 2005 · GB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+0.5 →−3.4▼ 3.9#29

GB+2.2 →+3.5▲ 1.3#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CIN

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

GB better ▶

#28

Defense

GB better ▶

−1.0 #29

Turnovers

GB better ▶

0.0 #17

53 plays #30

Pace

GB faster ▶

63 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	CIN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #29	21.0 #11	GB
Yards / play	4.28 #31	4.46 #2	GB
EPA / play	−0.24 #32	0.00 #13	GB
Success rate	38% #30	41% #5	GB

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #9	31.2 #30	GB
Yards / play	5.56 #12	5.75 #27	GB
EPA / play	+0.17 #4	+0.12 #28	GB
Success rate	47% #11	49% #28	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	3.4 #23	3.2 #30	6.6 #30	3.4 #25	7.0 #16	10.4 #19
GB allowed	0.0 #1	5.5 #12	5.5 #1	2.5 #3	12.3 #32	14.8 #28

GB scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	6.0 #7	5.8 #22	11.8 #16	4.3 #19	9.3 #6	13.5 #9
CIN allowed	7.0 #30	12.2 #31	19.2 #31	8.2 #31	3.8 #4	12.0 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.