Lions @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff80°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

4-1 · Power #6

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

2-3 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -2.5

✓ KC W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 23–25 KC

✓ KC (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -1.5

CloseKC -2.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -1.5

1 → KC

CloseKC -2.5

1 pt toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -1.5 · closed KC -2.5 · moved 1 toward KCmodel DET -2.5

model DET -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (165 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -1.5

CloseKC -2.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 2.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 30–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 2.8; 52.1 points a game (usually 44). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Close	LAR vs IND 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–20	W	U49.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	BAL vs BUF 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	35–10	W	U47.5
Close	DET vs BUF 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread	-2.5	42–48	L	O55.5
Close	BUF vs DAL 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	31–10	W	U49
Loose	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-1	1-1
KC LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UOOUO	3-2	60%	4-1
KC OUUOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 41% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 3–5 KC KC leads · 8 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2023	Detroit Lions 21 @ Kansas City Chiefs 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+2.8 →+5.2▲ 2.4#1

KC+1.3 →+2.5▲ 1.2#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

DET

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ DET better

Defense

◀ DET better

#18

+1.2 #4

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #6

61 plays #17

Pace

KC faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #1	21.4 #14	DET
Yards / play	5.96 #7	5.45 #20	DET
EPA / play	+0.17 #4	+0.01 #15	DET
Success rate	50% #4	46% #21	DET

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #10	22.4 #17	KC
Yards / play	5.73 #10	5.19 #11	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #6	−0.10 #4	Even
Success rate	49% #5	39% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	7.0 #5	8.8 #6	15.8 #3	6.8 #5	12.2 #1	19.0 #1
KC allowed	4.2 #16	5.0 #9	9.2 #10	5.4 #22	6.8 #18	12.2 #20

KC scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	2.6 #30	9.2 #4	11.8 #14	4.6 #16	8.6 #8	13.2 #11
DET allowed	6.2 #29	4.8 #6	11.0 #19	2.0 #1	9.4 #25	11.4 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.