Buccaneers @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Mon, Oct 20, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5-1 · Power #18

final

Final

Detroit Lions

4-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -6.5

✓ DET W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 23–29 DET

✓ DET (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -5.5

CloseDET -6.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -5.5

1 → DET

CloseDET -6.5

1 pt toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -5.5 · closed DET -6.5 · moved 1 toward DETmodel DET -4.5

model DET -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (104 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (83 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -5.5

CloseDET -6.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 6.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 24–9; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 5.5; 57.7 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL vs DET 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	30–38	L	O53.5
Close	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Close	DET vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	31–45	L	O55.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	BUF vs DEN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	31–7	W	U48.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	DET vs GB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	34–31	L	O53.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	55–23	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WLLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	3-1
DET WWWWL	4-2	67%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB UOOOO	4-2	67%	5-1
DET OOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 46% of games with totals 51.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
DET	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TB 11–10 DET TB leads · 21 games since 1999 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 15 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 @ Detroit Lions 16	DET -7.5	TB W
Jan 21 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -6	DET W
Oct 15 2023	Detroit Lions 20 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6	DET -3.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+1.2 →+2.3▲ 1.1#9

DET+2.8 →+4.5▲ 1.7#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

DET

#10

Offense

DET better ▶

#18

Defense

DET better ▶

#11

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+1.0 #3

61 plays #15

Pace

◀ TB faster

60 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #6	23.7 #20	TB
Yards / play	5.76 #8	5.28 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #7	−0.04 #8	Even
Success rate	44% #17	41% #7	DET

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #2	25.2 #22	DET
Yards / play	5.91 #5	5.34 #15	DET
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	0.00 #14	DET
Success rate	50% #3	46% #21	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.8 #20	10.0 #3	13.8 #8	7.7 #2	6.0 #21	13.7 #7
DET allowed	6.2 #27	5.2 #8	11.3 #18	2.8 #2	9.5 #26	12.3 #21

DET scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.3 #5	8.5 #6	14.8 #5	5.7 #12	11.3 #1	17.0 #1
TB allowed	6.2 #27	6.0 #14	12.2 #20	4.5 #16	8.5 #24	13.0 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.