Falcons @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 7 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff73°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

3-2 · Power #20

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

4-2 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -1.5

✓ SF W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 23–22 SF

✗ ATL (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -3.5

CloseATL -1.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -3.5

5 → ATL

CloseATL -1.5

5 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open44.5

▲ 2

Close46.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -3.5 · closed ATL -1.5 · moved 5 toward ATLmodel ATL -0.5

model ATL -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 56% (78 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -3.5

CloseATL -1.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 1.5-point road favorite at SF, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 20–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 1.6; 43.7 points a game (usually 43.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & total	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Close	SEA @ JAX 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	20–12	W	U47.5
Close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Close	ATL @ TB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-0.5	31–26	W	O47.5
Close	NYJ @ PIT 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	15–37	L	O40.5
Close	ARI @ SEA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-1.5	6–16	L	U46.5
Close	HOU @ IND 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	23–19	W	U48
Loose	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2	40–3	W	U48.5
Loose	LAC @ JAX 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	30–31	L	O46.5
Loose	JAX @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	24–21	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-2
SF WLLWL	3-3	50%	0-2	1-1

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; SF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UUUOU	1-4	20%	3-2
SF OUOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SF	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 9–9 SF Series tied · 18 games since 1999 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.4 →+1.6▲ 2.0#11

SF+0.9 →+1.6▲ 0.7#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ATL

Longer bar = better

#18

Offense

Even

#17

Defense

◀ ATL better

#18

+0.6 #8

Turnovers

◀ ATL better

−0.8 #29

66 plays #3

Pace

Even

69 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #25	21.3 #11	SF
Yards / play	5.74 #9	5.39 #16	ATL
EPA / play	0.00 #20	+0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	44% #16	47% #27	ATL

When SF has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	SF off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #23	20.0 #7	ATL
Yards / play	5.40 #18	4.84 #7	ATL
EPA / play	+0.02 #18	−0.06 #6	ATL
Success rate	48% #7	44% #16	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	7.4 #3	4.0 #29	11.4 #15	4.0 #20	4.6 #26	8.6 #29
SF allowed	1.2 #2	9.5 #28	10.7 #15	5.5 #23	5.2 #8	10.7 #10

SF scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.3 #17	7.0 #13	11.3 #16	2.8 #30	6.2 #20	9.0 #27
ATL allowed	2.8 #3	5.8 #13	8.6 #8	6.0 #25	5.4 #10	11.4 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.