Dolphins @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sun, Oct 26, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

1-6 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

3-3 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

ATL -6.5

✓ MIA W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 19–26 ATL

✗ ATL (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -7.5

CloseATL -6.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -7.5

1 → MIA

CloseATL -6.5

1 pt toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -7.5 · closed ATL -6.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel ATL -6.5 matches the line

model ATL -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (105 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 23% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -7.5

CloseATL -6.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 6.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 34–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 7.3; 52.3 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Very close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Very close	SEA vs NO 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	44–13	W	O41.5
Very close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & total	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Close	ARI vs TEN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	21–22	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WWLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	2-2
ATL WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	1-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OOOOO	6-1	86%	1-6
ATL UUOUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 182 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
ATL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 4–3 ATL MIA leads · 7 games since 2001 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA0.0 →−4.1▼ 4.1#29

ATL−0.4 →+1.3▲ 1.7#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MIA

Longer bar = better

ATL

#25

Offense

ATL better ▶

#20

#30

Defense

ATL better ▶

#11

−0.9 #30

Turnovers

ATL better ▶

+0.5 #10

54 plays #32

Pace

ATL faster ▶

65 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	MIA off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #25	20.0 #8	ATL
Yards / play	5.15 #20	4.85 #7	ATL
EPA / play	−0.04 #24	−0.04 #7	ATL
Success rate	39% #30	45% #20	ATL

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #28	29.3 #29	Even
Yards / play	5.61 #13	6.04 #29	ATL
EPA / play	−0.02 #21	+0.18 #32	ATL
Success rate	44% #16	49% #29	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.9 #28	7.7 #10	10.6 #18	2.9 #28	6.6 #17	9.4 #25
ATL allowed	2.3 #3	6.5 #18	8.8 #8	5.5 #23	5.7 #11	11.2 #12

ATL scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	6.2 #7	3.8 #30	10.0 #23	4.5 #18	3.8 #31	8.3 #29
MIA allowed	4.4 #16	8.1 #24	12.6 #22	7.0 #29	9.7 #27	16.7 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.