Vikings @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Thu, Oct 23, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

3-3 · Power #17

final

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

4-3 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

✓ LAC W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 21–24 LAC

✓ LAC (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -3.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -2.5

1 → LAC

CloseLAC -3.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Chargers

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -2.5 · closed LAC -3.5 · moved 1 toward LACmodel LAC -2

model LAC -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (173 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -3.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 3.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 37–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.9; 47.6 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Very close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Very close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	6–22	L	U44.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN LWLWL	3-3	50%	1-0	1-1
LAC WLLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-4

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	5-1	83%	3-3
LAC UUUOO	3-4	43%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 189 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
LAC	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIN 5–4 LAC MIN leads · 9 games since 1999 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 24 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 28 @ Minnesota Vikings 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+1.0 →+0.3▼ 0.7#17

LAC+0.5 →+0.6▲ 0.1#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MIN

Longer bar = better

LAC

#17

Offense

Even

#15

Defense

◀ MIN better

#17

−0.7 #26

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #23

59 plays #24

Pace

LAC faster ▶

65 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #15	23.3 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #17	5.41 #18	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #26	+0.04 #22	Even
Success rate	47% #9	43% #11	Even

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	LAC off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #20	20.8 #10	MIN
Yards / play	5.72 #8	5.22 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #16	−0.07 #6	MIN
Success rate	45% #14	41% #7	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.5 #15	6.3 #19	10.8 #17	5.2 #15	8.2 #10	13.3 #8
LAC allowed	3.3 #6	7.9 #23	11.1 #18	7.0 #29	5.1 #8	12.1 #20

LAC scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.6 #12	4.7 #24	10.3 #21	7.0 #4	4.3 #26	11.3 #19
MIN allowed	5.7 #25	4.3 #4	10.0 #12	5.2 #19	5.7 #11	10.8 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.