Chargers @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff49°F4 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

5-3 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

1-7 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

LAC -9.5

✓ TEN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 27–17 TEN

✓ LAC (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -8.5

CloseLAC -9.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -8.5

1 → LAC

CloseLAC -9.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Chargers

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -8.5 · closed LAC -9.5 · moved 1 toward LACmodel LAC -11

model LAC -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (87 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -8.5

CloseLAC -9.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 9.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 27–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 44.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 55%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 7.8; 50.7 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 9 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC @ CAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	30–27	L	O42.5
Close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	NE @ TEN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	31–13	W	O41.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5
Loose	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Loose	DET @ CIN 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-9.5	37–24	W	O48.5
Loose	ARI @ CAR 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	30–36	L	O47.5
Loose	NO @ CAR 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	22–23	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLLLW	4-4	50%	1-2	3-4
TEN LWLLL	2-6	25%	0-3	2-6

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOOO	4-4	50%	5-3
TEN UOUOO	5-3	63%	1-7

Went over in Q4. Of 196 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
TEN	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LAC 12–3 TEN LAC leads · 15 games since 2004 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 10 2024	Tennessee Titans 17 @ Los Angeles Chargers 27	LAC -8.5	LAC W
Sep 17 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 24 @ Tennessee Titans 27	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.5 →+1.8▲ 1.3#12

TEN−1.8 →−6.4▼ 4.6#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

LAC

Longer bar = better

TEN

#13

Offense

◀ LAC better

#32

#11

Defense

◀ LAC better

#26

−0.4 #22

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #23

66 plays #1

Pace

◀ LAC faster

59 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #16	28.8 #30	LAC
Yards / play	5.76 #11	5.91 #28	LAC
EPA / play	+0.05 #12	+0.13 #29	LAC
Success rate	46% #11	44% #16	LAC

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	TEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	13.8 #32	21.6 #12	LAC
Yards / play	4.22 #31	5.21 #10	LAC
EPA / play	−0.21 #32	−0.01 #17	LAC
Success rate	38% #31	41% #6	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.8 #9	5.9 #22	11.6 #13	6.5 #8	5.4 #23	11.9 #18
TEN allowed	7.5 #30	6.4 #18	13.9 #27	7.8 #31	7.1 #20	14.9 #28

TEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	2.4 #31	4.4 #27	6.8 #32	2.0 #32	5.0 #25	7.0 #31
LAC allowed	2.9 #4	7.3 #22	10.1 #13	7.0 #29	4.5 #6	11.5 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.