Bears @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff48°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

4-3 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

3-5 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

✓ CHI W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 26–24 CIN

✓ CHI (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -2.5

CloseCHI -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -2.5

no move

CloseCHI -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -2.5 · unchangedmodel CHI -1.5

model CHI -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (125 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -2.5

CloseCHI -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 2.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CHI won 47–42; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 3.2; 48.2 points a game (usually 44). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5
Close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Close	PHI @ KC 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	20–17	W	U46.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	CIN @ DAL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	27–20	W	U50.5
Close	DET @ DAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	47–9	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WWWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	1-1
CIN LLWWL	3-5	38%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: CHI away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UOOUO	5-2	71%	4-3
CIN UOOOO	6-2	75%	3-5

Went over in Q3. Of 40 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–54.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
CIN	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 5–2 CIN CHI leads · 7 games since 2001 · CHI has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−1.4 →−1.1▲ 0.3#22

CIN+0.5 →−3.4▼ 3.9#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CHI

Longer bar = better

CIN

#16

Offense

◀ CHI better

#23

#25

Defense

◀ CHI better

#32

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−0.3 #19

62 plays #15

Pace

◀ CHI faster

57 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	31.6 #32	CHI
Yards / play	5.63 #13	6.23 #32	CHI
EPA / play	+0.03 #15	+0.19 #32	CHI
Success rate	44% #22	51% #32	CHI

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #21	26.4 #25	Even
Yards / play	4.97 #25	6.17 #30	CIN
EPA / play	−0.05 #25	−0.01 #15	CHI
Success rate	44% #19	47% #28	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.6 #4	7.1 #15	13.7 #7	3.9 #20	6.4 #17	10.3 #22
CIN allowed	5.3 #22	10.9 #31	16.1 #29	6.4 #25	9.1 #26	15.5 #30

CIN scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	3.4 #21	5.9 #22	9.3 #26	4.3 #18	8.3 #7	12.5 #14
CHI allowed	3.4 #9	8.9 #26	12.3 #24	5.7 #22	8.4 #25	14.1 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.