49ers @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff58°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

5-3 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

2-6 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

SF -2.5

✓ SF W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 25–22 NYG

✓ SF (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -2.5

CloseSF -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -2.5

no move

CloseSF -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -2.5 · unchangedmodel SF -3

model SF -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (125 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -2.5

CloseSF -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 2.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 34–24; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 47%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 2.6; 39.3 points a game (usually 44). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5
Very close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Very close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Very close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Very close	PHI @ KC 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.5	20–17	W	U46.5
Very close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LWLWL	4-4	50%	3-2	2-2
NYG WLWWL	4-4	50%	2-1	4-4

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOOUU	4-4	50%	5-3
NYG UUOOO	4-4	50%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 146 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
NYG	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SF 8–7 NYG SF leads · 15 games since 2002 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2023	New York Giants 12 @ San Francisco 49ers 30	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+1.0▲ 0.1#13

NYG−2.6 →−2.9▼ 0.3#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

NYG

#17

Offense

◀ SF better

#24

#19

Defense

◀ SF better

#26

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

NYG better ▶

−0.5 #24

66 plays #2

Pace

◀ SF faster

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #25	26.9 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #18	5.86 #26	SF
EPA / play	+0.02 #19	+0.10 #26	SF
Success rate	48% #7	47% #27	SF

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	NYG off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #22	20.5 #8	SF
Yards / play	5.07 #24	5.47 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #22	+0.03 #21	Even
Success rate	41% #27	47% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	3.3 #24	7.4 #12	10.6 #19	3.5 #24	5.5 #22	9.0 #27
NYG allowed	3.8 #13	8.4 #24	12.1 #23	3.5 #7	10.9 #31	14.4 #26

NYG scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	5.9 #8	5.6 #25	11.5 #15	3.8 #22	6.4 #18	10.1 #24
SF allowed	1.3 #2	9.1 #28	10.4 #16	5.9 #24	4.3 #5	10.1 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.