Ravens @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Thu, Oct 30, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff70°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

2-5 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

2-6 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

✓ BAL W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 28–22 MIA

✓ BAL (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -7.5

CloseBAL -7.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -7.5

no move

CloseBAL -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -7.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -1.5

model MIA -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 47% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -7.5

CloseBAL -7.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like BAL as a 7.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 28–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 8 similar games. 34 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 8.

Favorite won

7 of 888%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 58%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 5.4; 42 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	KC @ NYG 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	22–9	W	U44.5
Loose	CIN @ DAL 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & situation	-4.5	27–20	W	U50.5
Loose	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5
Loose	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Loose	ATL @ LV 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	15–9	W	U43.5
Loose	BUF @ NYJ 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	30–10	W	U46.5
Loose	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · loose	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Loose	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · loose	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LLLLW	2-5	29%	0-2	2-3
MIA WLWLW	4-4	50%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOOUO	6-1	86%	2-5
MIA OOOOO	7-1	88%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 42% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
MIA	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAL 12–7 MIA BAL leads · 19 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	Miami Dolphins 19 @ Baltimore Ravens 56	BAL -3	BAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.6 →+0.9▼ 2.7#14

MIA0.0 →−2.7▼ 2.7#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BAL

Longer bar = better

MIA

#16

Offense

◀ BAL better

#24

#29

Defense

Even

#28

−0.9 #31

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #29

55 plays #32

Pace

Even

56 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #13	26.9 #26	BAL
Yards / play	5.76 #11	5.86 #27	BAL
EPA / play	0.00 #19	+0.12 #28	BAL
Success rate	44% #19	48% #29	BAL

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	30.0 #30	MIA
Yards / play	5.16 #22	5.72 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #22	+0.14 #30	MIA
Success rate	40% #29	49% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	3.7 #18	6.3 #20	10.0 #22	6.7 #7	8.1 #8	14.9 #5
MIA allowed	3.9 #15	7.5 #22	11.4 #19	6.1 #25	9.4 #26	15.5 #29

MIA scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.4 #21	8.0 #7	11.4 #17	3.4 #27	7.0 #13	10.4 #22
BAL allowed	4.3 #17	7.6 #23	11.9 #22	7.7 #30	10.4 #29	18.1 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.