Vikings @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

3-4 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Detroit Lions

5-2 · Power #6

final

Closing spread

DET -9.5

✓ MIN W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 19–29 DET

✗ DET (81%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -9.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -8.5

1 → DET

CloseDET -9.5

1 pt toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -8.5 · closed DET -9.5 · moved 1 toward DETmodel DET -11

model DET -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 46% (76 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (87 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -9.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 9.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 9.7; 46.1 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	KC vs WSH 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-11.5	28–7	W	U48.5
Close	DET vs CLE 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-10.5	34–10	W	U44.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & spread	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	DET vs CHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-10	23–20	L	U48.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	BUF vs NE 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	20–23	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-1	1-2
DET WWWLW	5-2	71%	3-0	4-0

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OOOOO	6-1	86%	3-4
DET OUOUU	3-4	43%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 146 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
DET	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

MIN 36–18 DET MIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	Minnesota Vikings 9 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -2.5	DET W
Oct 20 2024	Detroit Lions 31 @ Minnesota Vikings 29	MIN -1.5	DET W
Jan 7 2023	Minnesota Vikings 20 @ Detroit Lions 30	DET -3.5	DET W
Dec 24 2023	Detroit Lions 30 @ Minnesota Vikings 24	DET -2.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+1.0 →−1.1▼ 2.1#21

DET+2.8 →+5.2▲ 2.4#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MIN

Longer bar = better

DET

#21

Offense

DET better ▶

#15

Defense

DET better ▶

−0.6 #25

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.9 #5

57 plays #28

Pace

DET faster ▶

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	MIN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #18	21.6 #11	DET
Yards / play	5.19 #21	5.05 #8	DET
EPA / play	−0.11 #28	−0.10 #2	DET
Success rate	44% #18	40% #3	DET

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #3	23.1 #19	DET
Yards / play	5.90 #6	5.35 #15	DET
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.02 #13	DET
Success rate	48% #6	43% #12	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	3.9 #18	5.9 #24	9.7 #24	5.4 #14	7.0 #13	12.4 #15
DET allowed	5.3 #23	4.9 #5	10.1 #15	3.3 #4	8.1 #22	11.4 #14

DET scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.4 #6	8.3 #5	14.7 #4	5.9 #12	10.1 #4	16.0 #3
MIN allowed	5.9 #27	5.7 #10	11.6 #20	4.9 #16	6.7 #18	11.6 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.