Lions @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

5-3 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

3-6 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

DET -7.5

✓ DET W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 28–20 WSH

✓ DET (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -7.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3.5

4 → DET

CloseDET -7.5

4 pts toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open51.5

▼ 3

Close48.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3.5 · closed DET -7.5 · moved 4 toward DETmodel DET -11.5

model DET -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 44% (40 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 28% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -7.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 7.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 44–22; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 7.3; 43.9 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSH @ DAL 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	23–19	L	U43.5
Close	BAL @ HOU 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	31–2	W	U47.5
Loose	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Loose	MIA @ WSH 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-8.5	45–15	W	O49.5
Loose	KC @ DEN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	9–24	L	U45.5
Loose	PHI @ CHI 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-9	25–20	L	U48
Loose	KC @ LAC 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	30–27	L	O53
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Loose	SF @ ATL 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	14–28	L	U46.5
Loose	TB @ PIT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	18–20	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLWL	5-3	63%	2-2	4-1
WSH WLLLL	3-6	33%	2-2	1-5

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UOUUO	4-4	50%	5-3
WSH UOOUO	5-4	56%	3-6

Went over in Q3. Of 125 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WSH	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 9–6 WSH DET leads · 15 games since 1999 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 18 2024	Washington Commanders 45 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -8.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+2.8 →+4.7▲ 1.9#1

WSH+0.7 →−1.3▼ 2.0#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

DET

Longer bar = better

WSH

Offense

◀ DET better

#15

Defense

◀ DET better

#25

+0.8 #5

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.7 #30

61 plays #21

Pace

Even

59 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #2	26.2 #23	DET
Yards / play	5.77 #9	6.17 #30	DET
EPA / play	+0.10 #7	+0.11 #26	DET
Success rate	46% #11	46% #21	DET

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	WSH off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #20	22.3 #13	DET
Yards / play	5.62 #13	4.96 #8	DET
EPA / play	+0.01 #20	−0.09 #4	DET
Success rate	47% #7	40% #4	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.5 #5	8.1 #7	14.6 #6	5.5 #12	9.8 #3	15.3 #2
WSH allowed	6.7 #29	8.0 #24	14.7 #28	6.4 #29	5.1 #9	11.6 #18

WSH scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.4 #31	7.9 #9	10.3 #23	5.2 #15	6.8 #17	12.0 #14
DET allowed	6.4 #28	4.6 #2	11.0 #15	3.8 #10	7.5 #21	11.3 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.