Raiders @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Thu, Nov 6, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Weather at kickoff56°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-6 · Power #30

final

Final

Denver Broncos

7-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -9.5

✓ LV W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 16–25 DEN

✓ DEN (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -10.5

CloseDEN -9.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -10.5

1 → LV

CloseDEN -9.5

1 pt toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -10.5 · closed DEN -9.5 · moved 1 toward LVmodel DEN -9

model DEN -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 45% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 42% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -10.5

CloseDEN -9.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 9.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 10–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 41.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 56%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 8.5; 50.7 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 9 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & total	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Close	DEN vs NYG 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & total	-7.5	33–32	L	O40.5
Close	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5
Close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & total	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5
Close	ATL vs NYG 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread	-9.5	34–7	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV LLWLW	3-5	38%	1-3	2-4
DEN WLLWW	4-5	44%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV OUUUO	3-5	38%	2-6
DEN UUOOU	3-6	33%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
DEN	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

LV 23–31 DEN DEN leads · 54 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2024	Denver Broncos 29 @ Las Vegas Raiders 19	DEN -5.5	DEN W
Oct 6 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 18 @ Denver Broncos 34	DEN -2.5	DEN W
Jan 7 2023	Denver Broncos 14 @ Las Vegas Raiders 27	LV -3	LV W
Sep 10 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−2.0 →−4.3▼ 2.3#30

DEN+0.4 →+2.4▲ 2.0#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

DEN

#28

Offense

DEN better ▶

#16

#20

Defense

DEN better ▶

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

−0.3 #18

57 plays #29

Pace

DEN faster ▶

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	LV off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #29	18.4 #4	DEN
Yards / play	5.00 #26	4.45 #1	DEN
EPA / play	−0.14 #29	−0.09 #4	DEN
Success rate	41% #27	37% #1	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #14	26.3 #23	DEN
Yards / play	5.45 #15	5.22 #11	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #12	+0.06 #23	DEN
Success rate	42% #23	46% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.3 #24	3.8 #32	7.0 #31	3.4 #24	5.4 #23	8.8 #28
DEN allowed	4.1 #12	6.2 #15	10.3 #12	4.1 #11	4.0 #4	8.1 #3

DEN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.9 #15	6.9 #19	11.8 #14	2.6 #30	10.7 #3	13.2 #10
LV allowed	4.3 #18	8.3 #25	12.5 #23	7.5 #32	5.4 #10	12.9 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.