Browns @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff58°F7 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

2-6 · Power #29

final

Final

New York Jets

1-7 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 21–19 NYJ

✗ CLE (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -1.5

CloseCLE -2.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNYJ -1.5

4 → CLE

CloseCLE -2.5

4 pts toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open37.5

no move

Close37.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -1.5 · closed CLE -2.5 · moved 4 toward CLEmodel NYJ -3

model NYJ -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (131 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 55% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -1.5

CloseCLE -2.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like CLE as a 2.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NYJ won 27–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 9 similar games. 47 points went over 37.5, as in 3 of 9.

Favorite won

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5.7 against an average line of 2.3; 37.4 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEN @ JAX 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	13–20	L	U38.5
Close	LV @ NO 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	25–10	W	U37.5
Close	CLE @ NO 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Loose	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & season form	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Loose	MIA @ NE 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-2.5	15–10	W	U36.5
Loose	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2	16–10	W	U36
Loose	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & season form	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Loose	NE @ NYG 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-4.5	7–10	L	U36
Loose	ATL @ TEN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	23–28	L	O35

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLLWL	3-5	38%	0-4	1-0
NYJ LLWLW	4-4	50%	1-3	4-2

Venue/role: CLE away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE UOUOO	4-4	50%	2-6
NYJ OOUUO	5-3	63%	1-7

Went over in Q4. Of 68 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
NYJ	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLE 6–10 NYJ NYJ leads · 16 games since 2002 · NYJ has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2023	New York Jets 20 @ Cleveland Browns 37	CLE -7	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−2.1 →−2.9▼ 0.8#24

NYJ−1.0 →−3.3▼ 2.3#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CLE

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#31

Offense

NYJ better ▶

#23

Defense

◀ CLE better

#22

0.0 #14

Turnovers

◀ CLE better

−1.1 #32

64 plays #6

Pace

◀ CLE faster

61 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	CLE off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #29	27.6 #27	Even
Yards / play	4.12 #32	5.49 #21	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.18 #31	+0.12 #27	Even
Success rate	34% #32	43% #11	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	NYJ off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #25	23.0 #17	CLE
Yards / play	4.91 #27	4.82 #6	CLE
EPA / play	−0.03 #26	−0.06 #6	CLE
Success rate	45% #15	40% #3	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.0 #25	4.1 #31	7.1 #30	4.1 #19	4.5 #29	8.6 #28
NYJ allowed	6.1 #27	10.6 #30	16.8 #31	4.6 #15	6.3 #13	10.9 #10

NYJ scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.6 #30	4.4 #29	7.0 #31	3.1 #26	10.9 #2	14.0 #6
CLE allowed	3.8 #9	6.0 #13	9.8 #10	6.9 #28	6.4 #16	13.3 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.