Ravens @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game

Weather at kickoff43°F21 mphgusts 33Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

4-5 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

2-7 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

✓ CLE W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 23–15 CLE

✓ BAL (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -9.5

CloseBAL -7.5

Total41.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -9.5

2 → CLE

CloseBAL -7.5

2 pts toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open41.5

▼ 4

Close37.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -9.5 · closed BAL -7.5 · moved 2 toward CLEmodel BAL -7.5 matches the line

model BAL -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 45% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -9.5

CloseBAL -7.5

Total41.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 7.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 23–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 39 points went over 37.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 6.5; 46.5 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	IND @ NYG 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	33–45	L	O40.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5
Loose	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Loose	MIN @ CHI 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & rest	-7.5	29–13	W	U42.5
Loose	SEA @ LAR 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-7	27–23	L	O41
Loose	MIA @ NYJ 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & rest	-8.5	34–13	W	O40
Loose	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Loose	GB @ WSH 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-5.5	21–23	L	O41.5
Loose	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LLWWW	4-5	44%	2-2	4-3
CLE LLWLL	3-6	33%	3-0	2-5

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OUOUU	6-3	67%	4-5
CLE OUOOO	5-4	56%	2-7

Went over in Q4. Of 70 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

BAL 39–16 CLE BAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2025	Cleveland Browns 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 41	BAL -12.5	BAL W
Jan 4 2024	Cleveland Browns 10 @ Baltimore Ravens 35	BAL -20.5	BAL W
Oct 27 2024	Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Cleveland Browns 29	BAL -7.5	CLE W
Nov 12 2023	Cleveland Browns 33 @ Baltimore Ravens 31	BAL -6	CLE W
Oct 1 2023	Baltimore Ravens 28 @ Cleveland Browns 3	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.6 →+1.9▼ 1.7#12

CLE−2.1 →−2.6▼ 0.5#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BAL

Longer bar = better

CLE

#13

Offense

◀ BAL better

#31

#24

Defense

CLE better ▶

0.0 #15

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #14

56 plays #30

Pace

CLE faster ▶

65 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	BAL off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #10	23.4 #17	BAL
Yards / play	5.67 #10	4.70 #5	CLE
EPA / play	+0.02 #16	−0.09 #4	CLE
Success rate	45% #14	38% #2	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	CLE off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #29	26.1 #25	Even
Yards / play	4.10 #32	5.71 #25	BAL
EPA / play	−0.17 #31	+0.07 #23	BAL
Success rate	34% #32	46% #23	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	4.0 #19	6.3 #22	10.3 #21	7.9 #1	7.2 #13	15.1 #3
CLE allowed	4.9 #20	5.7 #9	10.6 #14	6.1 #26	6.8 #17	12.9 #24

CLE scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.4 #26	4.8 #27	8.2 #28	3.7 #22	4.3 #31	8.0 #29
BAL allowed	4.4 #18	6.6 #18	11.0 #16	6.3 #28	8.8 #26	15.1 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.