Bears @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

6-3 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota Vikings

4-5 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

MIN -3

✓ CHI W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 22–25 MIN

✗ MIN (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -2.5

CloseMIN -3

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -2.5

0.5 → MIN

CloseMIN -3

0.5 pts toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -2.5 · closed MIN -3 · moved 0.5 toward MINmodel MIN -1.5

model MIN -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (163 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -2.5

CloseMIN -3

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 3-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 19–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 2.8; 48.3 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WWLWL	5-4	56%	3-2	3-2
MIN WLLWL	4-5	44%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUOOU	6-3	67%	6-3
MIN OOOOU	7-2	78%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
MIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CHI 26–29 MIN MIN leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2025	Minnesota Vikings 27 @ Chicago Bears 24	CHI -1.5	MIN W
Dec 16 2024	Chicago Bears 12 @ Minnesota Vikings 30	MIN -6.5	MIN W
Nov 24 2024	Minnesota Vikings 30 @ Chicago Bears 27	MIN -2.5	MIN W
Nov 27 2023	Chicago Bears 12 @ Minnesota Vikings 10	MIN -3	CHI W
Oct 15 2023	Minnesota Vikings 19 @ Chicago Bears 13	MIN -3.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−1.4 →−0.8▲ 0.6#18

MIN+1.0 →−0.6▼ 1.6#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CHI

Longer bar = better

MIN

Offense

◀ CHI better

#23

#26

Defense

MIN better ▶

#13

+1.6 #1

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−0.8 #30

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ CHI faster

58 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #7	23.7 #18	CHI
Yards / play	5.94 #5	5.24 #14	CHI
EPA / play	+0.08 #9	−0.02 #11	Even
Success rate	46% #13	43% #10	Even

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #21	27.4 #28	MIN
Yards / play	5.19 #22	6.34 #30	MIN
EPA / play	−0.10 #28	+0.02 #20	CHI
Success rate	43% #22	46% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.7 #5	6.7 #20	13.3 #8	4.9 #17	8.3 #7	13.2 #9
MIN allowed	5.7 #25	5.9 #11	11.6 #18	5.2 #20	6.9 #18	12.1 #20

MIN scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	5.3 #12	5.2 #25	10.6 #21	5.3 #14	6.4 #19	11.8 #15
CHI allowed	3.8 #9	9.1 #28	12.9 #25	6.0 #25	8.6 #24	14.6 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.