Lions @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff45°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Detroit Lions

6-3 · Power #6

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

7-2 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

✓ PHI W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 22–24 PHI

✓ PHI (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -1.5

ClosePHI -2.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -1.5

1 → PHI

ClosePHI -2.5

1 pt toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -1.5 · closed PHI -2.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel DET -2

model DET -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (183 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (101 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -1.5

ClosePHI -2.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 2.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 16–9; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.1 against an average line of 3; 54.1 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 7 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WLWLW	6-3	67%	3-2	1-2
PHI LLWWW	6-3	67%	2-2	5-3

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUOO	5-4	56%	6-3
PHI UOOOU	5-4	56%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
PHI	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 4–7 PHI PHI leads · 11 games since 2004 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+2.8 →+5.4▲ 2.6#1

PHI+3.2 →+2.7▼ 0.5#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

DET

Longer bar = better

PHI

Offense

◀ DET better

#16

Defense

◀ DET better

#13

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #8

62 plays #17

Pace

◀ DET faster

58 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #2	21.3 #9	DET
Yards / play	6.05 #4	5.20 #13	DET
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	−0.02 #13	DET
Success rate	48% #7	45% #16	DET

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	PHI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #13	22.2 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.27 #19	5.03 #7	DET
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	−0.06 #6	Even
Success rate	44% #20	41% #4	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	7.3 #2	8.4 #7	15.8 #4	6.0 #7	9.7 #3	15.7 #2
PHI allowed	5.1 #22	5.3 #7	10.4 #12	4.6 #17	6.3 #12	10.9 #10

PHI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.9 #5	6.9 #17	13.8 #6	5.2 #13	5.2 #26	10.4 #25
DET allowed	6.0 #28	4.9 #4	10.9 #15	4.0 #11	7.3 #19	11.3 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.