Jets @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Thu, Nov 13, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Weather at kickoff40°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

2-7 · Power #32

final

Final

New England Patriots

8-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -12.5

✓ NE W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 15–27 NE

✓ NE (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -10.5

CloseNE -12.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -10.5

2 → NE

CloseNE -12.5

2 pts toward New England Patriots

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -10.5 · closed NE -12.5 · moved 2 toward NEmodel NE -7.5

model NE -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -10.5

CloseNE -12.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 12.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 27–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 12; 39.8 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Very close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Close	GB vs CAR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	13–16	L	U43.5
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & situation	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & total	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	DET vs CLE 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-10.5	34–10	W	U44.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Close	CIN vs CLE 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation	-10.5	24–6	W	U46.5
Close	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & situation	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ LWLWW	5-4	56%	2-1	5-2
NE WWWLW	7-3	70%	2-3	4-2

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ OUUOO	6-3	67%	2-7
NE UOOOO	6-4	60%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
NE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

NYJ 14–43 NE NE leads · 57 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 27 2024	New York Jets 22 @ New England Patriots 25	NYJ -7.5	NE W
Sep 19 2024	New England Patriots 3 @ New York Jets 24	NYJ -6.5	NYJ W
Jan 7 2023	New York Jets 17 @ New England Patriots 3	NE -2.5	NYJ W
Sep 24 2023	New England Patriots 15 @ New York Jets 10	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.0 →−3.6▼ 2.6#27

NE−2.3 →+1.0▲ 3.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NYJ

Longer bar = better

#26

Offense

NE better ▶

#18

Defense

NE better ▶

#13

−1.1 #32

Turnovers

NE better ▶

−0.1 #16

60 plays #22

Pace

Even

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	NYJ off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #25	19.2 #6	NE
Yards / play	4.79 #29	5.44 #19	NE
EPA / play	−0.06 #26	−0.03 #10	NE
Success rate	43% #22	45% #15	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #8	26.8 #26	NE
Yards / play	5.87 #7	5.30 #15	NE
EPA / play	+0.11 #8	+0.09 #26	NE
Success rate	45% #13	42% #6	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.9 #19	4.2 #29	8.1 #29	2.8 #27	10.8 #2	13.6 #7
NE allowed	5.7 #26	4.7 #2	10.4 #11	2.9 #2	5.9 #11	8.8 #7

NE scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.3 #6	8.6 #5	14.9 #5	7.0 #5	4.6 #29	11.6 #17
NYJ allowed	6.2 #28	10.6 #30	16.8 #31	4.1 #13	5.9 #10	10.0 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.