Patriots @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sun, Nov 23, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff54°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

9-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

3-7 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

NE -7.5

✓ CIN W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 29–22 CIN

✓ NE (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -5.5

CloseNE -7.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -5.5

2 → NE

CloseNE -7.5

2 pts toward New England Patriots

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -5.5 · closed NE -7.5 · moved 2 toward NEmodel NE -6

model NE -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 44% (44 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 32% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNE -5.5

CloseNE -7.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 7.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 26–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 6.9; 55.3 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	ARI @ CAR 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation	-5.5	30–36	L	O47.5
Close	DET @ CIN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-9.5	37–24	W	O48.5
Close	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5
Close	GB @ DAL 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar season form	-6.5	40–40	L	O46.5
Loose	BUF @ MIA 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-8.5	13–30	L	U50.5
Loose	WSH @ DAL 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	23–19	L	U43.5
Loose	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Loose	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & season form	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Loose	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WWLWW	8-3	73%	5-0	5-2
CIN WWLLL	3-7	30%	2-3	2-5

Venue/role: NE away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OOOOU	6-5	55%	9-2
CIN OOOOU	7-3	70%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 49% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
CIN	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NE 10–3 CIN NE leads · 13 games since 2000 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2024	New England Patriots 16 @ Cincinnati Bengals 10	CIN -7.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−2.3 →+1.3▲ 3.6#13

CIN+0.5 →−4.5▼ 5.0#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

CIN

Offense

◀ NE better

#20

#12

Defense

◀ NE better

#32

0.0 #15

Turnovers

◀ NE better

−0.7 #28

61 plays #19

Pace

◀ NE faster

59 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #7	33.4 #32	NE
Yards / play	5.83 #6	6.34 #32	NE
EPA / play	+0.11 #6	+0.22 #32	NE
Success rate	46% #11	51% #32	NE

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	CIN off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	18.7 #5	NE
Yards / play	5.23 #19	5.33 #15	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #25	−0.03 #11	NE
Success rate	44% #18	45% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.7 #9	9.1 #4	14.8 #4	7.0 #4	4.7 #30	11.7 #17
CIN allowed	5.6 #24	10.0 #30	15.6 #30	7.5 #32	10.3 #30	17.8 #32

CIN scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.3 #16	5.7 #24	10.0 #23	4.4 #18	8.4 #6	12.8 #10
NE allowed	5.8 #28	4.3 #1	10.1 #11	3.3 #5	5.4 #7	8.6 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.